Friday, 26 August 2016

Real Oviedo

There is cause-effect relationship between past and futur performance.

Basic recipe to have better performance in futur is to remove unwanted causes in past.


We design leading indicator system to report futur decrease/increase in performance.

Leading indicators are calculated with complicated formulae using match data.

Leading indicators "predict" futur.


Real Oviedo Club de Futbol (goal performance)

PeriodGoal_marginScoredConcededTotal Match #Indicator (leading)
  0,41 1,43 1,01 2,44 150 1,66
2016 -0,06 1,06 1,13 2,19 31 1,81
2015 0,64 1,60 0,96 2,56 50 1,44
2014 0,63 1,58 0,95 2,53 43 2,01
2013 0,19 1,27 1,08 2,35 26 1,02



@2014: Leading indicator overheated (>1.66 - average). Pointing a decrease in futur performance.
----> This is cause of futur results.


@2015:  Goal margin average (0.64) same as of 2014 (0.63). No increase in goal margin (as a result of overheated leading indicator @2014). But still a decrease in goal_margin is expected (leading indicator..)

@2016: A sharp  decrease in goal margin (-0.06) as a result of overheated leading indicator @2014


RECİPE: What we have to do to avoid or to smooth decrease periods ?

Instead of getting better results (because this may overheat leading indicator), team management must focus on "team design" to keep leading indicator @ low level.

A recipe example:
Replacement of some players with overheating indicators is needed.